CCP virus

Flawed Virus Lockdown Models

By Mike Kapic / May 24, 2021 / Comments Off on Flawed Virus Lockdown Models

Professor Explains Flaw in Many Models Used for COVID-19 Lockdown Policies BY ANDREW CHEN – May 11, 2021 CANADA Economics professor Doug Allen wanted to know why so many early models used to create COVID-19 lockdown policies turned out to be highly incorrect. What he found was that a great majority were based on false assumptions…

Read More

MIT Torches Masks

By Mike Kapic / May 10, 2021 / Comments Off on MIT Torches Masks

The COVID Panic Mafia’s Mask Fetish Just Went Up in Flames. MIT Researchers Torched It. By Matt Vespa – Apr 25, 2021 How many times have we seen it from the liberal media? They detail a large gathering, with the insufferable comment “no masks.” The mask has been the crutch for the panic peddlers, something…

Read More

Small Business Helping Oligarchy

By Mike Kapic / May 4, 2021 / Comments Off on Small Business Helping Oligarchy

How American Small Businesses Are Being Coerced To Help Build The Oligarchy While corporations are leading our government by the nose, small business is more often an unwilling victim, pleading for any path they can to survive their rulers. By Christopher Bedford – APRIL 22, 2021 WASHINGTON, D.C. — In big cities across America, we have seen…

Read More

Masks Don’t Protect Against Infection

By Mike Kapic / December 10, 2020 / Comments Off on Masks Don’t Protect Against Infection

Major Study Finds Masks Don’t Reduce COVID-19 Infection Rates By Jordan Davidson – NOVEMBER 18, 2020 A high-quality, large-scale Danish study finds no evidence that wearing a face mask significantly minimizes people’s risk of contracting COVID-19. The randomized-control trial found no statistically significant difference in coronavirus infection rates between mask-wearers and non-mask-wearers. In fact, according to the data, mask…

Read More

Government Schools vs. Homeschool Polling

By Mike Kapic / September 2, 2020 / Comments Off on Government Schools vs. Homeschool Polling

Gallup Poll: Homeschooling Rate Doubles as School Satisfaction Plummets An educational sea change is happening, and there are reasons to believe it will be permanent. By Kerry McDonald – August 27, 2020 Results of a new Gallup poll released this week may give us the sharpest look yet at how the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted…

Read More

Categories

[custom-facebook-feed]

Flawed Virus Lockdown Models

Professor Explains Flaw in Many Models Used for COVID-19 Lockdown Policies

BY ANDREW CHEN – May 11, 2021

CANADA

Economics professor Doug Allen wanted to know why so many early models used to create COVID-19 lockdown policies turned out to be highly incorrect. What he found was that a great majority were based on false assumptions and “tended to over-estimate the benefits and under-estimate the costs.” He found it troubling that policies such as total lockdowns were based on those models.

“They were built on a set of assumptions. Those assumptions turned out to be really important, and the models are very sensitive to them, and they turn out to be false,” said Allen, the Burnaby Mountain Professor of Economics at Simon Fraser University, in an interview.

Allen says most of the early cost-benefit studies that he reviewed didn’t try to distinguish between mandated and voluntary changes in people’s behaviour in the face of a pandemic. Rather, they just assumed an exponential growth of cases of infection day after day until herd immunity is reached.

In a paper he published in April, in which he compiled his findings based on a review of over 80 papers on the effects of lockdowns around the world, Allen concluded that lockdowns may be one of “the greatest peacetime policy failures in Canada’s history.”

He says many of the studies early in the pandemic assumed that human behaviour changes only as a result of state-mandated intervention, such as the closing of schools and non-essential businesses, mask and social distancing orders, and restrictions on private social gatherings.

However, they didn’t take into consideration people’s voluntary behavioural changes in response to the virus threat, which have a major impact on evaluating the merits of a lockdown policy.

“Human beings make choices, and we respond to the environment that we’re in, [but] these early models did not take this into account,” Allen said. “If there’s a virus around, I don’t go to stores often. If I go to a store, I go to a store that doesn’t have me meeting so many people. If I do meet people, I tend to still stand my distance from them. You don’t need lockdowns to induce people to behave that way.”

Allen’s own cost-benefit analysis is based on the calculation of “life-years saved,” which determines “how many years of lost life will have been caused by the various harms of lockdowns versus how many years of lost life were saved by lockdowns.”

Based on his lost-life calculation, lockdown measures have caused 282 times more harm than benefit to Canadian society over the long term, or 282 times more life years lost than saved.

Furthermore, “The limited effectiveness of lockdowns explains why, after one year, the unconditional cumulative deaths per million, and the pattern of daily deaths per million, is not negatively correlated with the stringency of lockdown across countries,” writes Allen. In other words, in his assessment, heavy lockdowns do not meaningfully reduce the number of deaths in the areas where they are implemented, when compared to areas where lockdowns were not implemented or as stringent.

Today, some 14 months into the pandemic, many jurisdictions across Canada are still following the same policy trajectory outlined at the beginning of the pandemic. Allen attributes this to politics.

He says that politicians often take credit for having achieved a reduction in case numbers through their lockdown measures.

“I think it makes perfect sense why they do exactly what they did last year,” Allen said.

“If you were a politician, would you say, ‘We’re not going to lock down because it doesn’t make a difference, and we actually did the equivalent of killing 600,000 people this last year.’”

You wouldn’t, he said, because “the alternative is they [politicians] have to admit that they made a mistake, and they caused … multiple more loss of life years than they saved.”

Allen laments that media for the most part have carried only one side of the debate on COVID-19 restrictions and haven’t examined the other side. Adding to the concern, he says, is that views contrary to the official government response are often pulled from social media platforms.

He says he has heard that even his own published study has been censored by some social media sites.

“In some sense these are private platforms. They can do what they want. But on the other hand, I feel kind of sad that we live in the kind of a world where posing opposing opinions is either dismissed, ignored, or … name-called, [and] in some ways cancelled,” Allen said.

The Epoch Times

Posted in , ,

Mike Kapic